US Dollar Strengthens As Bets On Donald Trump Presidency Rise Post-Debate

The United States (US) Dollar gained more value on Tuesday, while Asian equities showed a mixed performance as investors assessed the potential of another Donald Trump presidency.

Naija News reports that this development is coming following Joe Biden‘s lacklustre debate performance last week.

Speculation regarding a second term for the Republican gained momentum after the Supreme Court’s ruling granting “absolute immunity” to former leaders for “official acts” during their time in office, although they could still face legal consequences for “unofficial acts”.

Recall that Trump is currently facing criminal charges related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, with the trial postponed pending a decision on his immunity claims.

Following Thursday’s debate, where Trump was perceived to have outperformed Biden, who struggled with responses and delivery, there were calls for Biden to step down due to concerns about his mental acuity.

However, Democrats have resisted these calls and are reportedly planning a vote next month to officially nominate him as the party’s candidate for the upcoming election in November.

“Those two headlines, and given the reaction to President Biden’s first debate, continue to suggest a Trump presidency is looking more likely at this stage,” Tapas Strickland at National Australia Bank said in a commentary.

According to AFP, observers noted that the possibility of another Trump presidency led to discussions about tax cuts and a potential increase in inflation.

This resulted in higher yields and diminished expectations for interest rate reductions. Consequently, the dollar strengthened against its major counterparts, reaching a 38-year peak against the yen.

This development prompted Japanese authorities to be on high alert, especially after their prior warnings about potential intervention in the foreign exchange markets to bolster their currency.

The euro, on the other hand, experienced some weakness, although it managed to retain most of the gains achieved on Monday during a relief rally following indications that the far-right National Rally (NR) was unlikely to secure an absolute majority in the French legislative elections.

President Emmanuel Macron and his supporters are currently engaged in vigorous campaigning and negotiations in preparation for the upcoming polls, aiming to prevent NR from gaining full control of the government.

However, Luca Santos at ACY Securities said: “Based on current results, the two most probable outcomes are a hung parliament without an absolute majority or an RN cohabitation government.

“The high number of constituencies won by the RN, coupled with tight races between left and centre candidates, complicates strategic withdrawals and heightens the risk of an RN cohabitation government, which would be less favourable for the euro.

“Consequently, the euro’s current relief rally is unlikely to persist ahead of the second election round.”

As of Monday, Asian stock markets displayed a varied performance, as Hong Kong witnessed an unusual surge following a series of losses, and Tokyo gained over one per cent to close above 40,000 points for the first time since April.

Shanghai, Singapore, Mumbai, and Jakarta also experienced gains. On the other hand, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington, Bangkok, Taipei, and Manila saw declines.

Meanwhile, London, Paris, and Frankfurt all started the day with losses.

Below are the reported figures As Of 0715 GMT:

• Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.1 per cent at 40,074.69 (close)
• Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.2 per cent at 17,758.48
• Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 2,997.01 (close)
• London – FTSE 100: UP 0.4 percent at 8,133.46
• Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0728 from $1.0743 on Monday
• Dollar/yen: UP at 161.67 yen from 161.46 yen
• Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2633 from $1.2648
• Euro/pound: UP at 84.94 pence from 84.92 pence
• West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.1 percent at $83.50 per barrel
• Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.2 per cent at $86.81 per barrel
• New York – Dow: UP 0.1 per cent at 39,169.52 (close)

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